Let me predict that the Supreme Court’s ultimate gunfight is set to restore the Second Amendment.
The United States Supreme Court has a habit of saving its biggest constitutional thunderclaps for the end of term—and this year is no exception. Two high-stakes Second Amendment battles—Snope v. Garland and Ocean State Tactical v. Rhode Island—are locked in at SCOTUS, and the justices are not letting them go quietly.
Rather than issuing a routine denial or grant of certiorari, the Court has relisted these cases again and again in conference—an unmistakable signal to seasoned court watchers that the justices are circling something explosive. This pattern strongly suggests that the Court may be preparing to grant certiorari and use these cases to reaffirm and perhaps expand on the principles it laid down in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, 597 U.S. ___ (2022).
In Bruen, the Court made it abundantly clear: the Second Amendment is not a second-class right. Any law that restricts firearm possession must be deeply rooted in the Nation’s history and tradition. That precedent alone puts state bans on so-called “assault weapons” and standard-capacity magazines on thin constitutional ice.
Now, in Snope, which challenges federal bans and interpretations under the National Firearms Act and Gun Control Act, and Ocean State Tactical, which attacks Rhode Island’s ban on magazines capable of holding more than ten rounds, the stakes could not be higher. These cases may answer the critical question: Can governments ban the most popular arms in common use by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes?
The Court’s extended deliberation and repeated relisting of these cases strongly suggest that a majority is weighing how best to write the next chapter in Second Amendment jurisprudence—a chapter that may strike down broad weapon bans and reaffirm that the right to keep and bear arms includes arms that are effective, reliable, and widely owned.
Unfortunately, unless the court decides very quickly to grant CERT and fast track this case which is very unlikely we are going to have to wait at least a year for the Supreme Court to deal with the briefing schedule and oral arguments it’s doubtful we are going to get any relief until 2026
Watch this space—because when the Court finally pulls the trigger, it could redefine the limits of state and federal power over armed self-defense in America.
