When I was a young cop I was astounded to learn that homicides were cleared somewhere around 85%. Who would dare commit a murder with those lousy odds? Capitol punishment was still a reality before that Fuhrman vs. Georgia execution moratorium nearly ended the death penalty for good.
Then came the mid 1980s and the clearance rate for murders began dropping. The murder clearance rate steadily decreased to around 36% where it stands today.
I bet you’re thinking criminals are smarter today and better at avoiding discovery? Not a chance the killers were never very smart nor careful and actually taking steps to hide evidence.
But now we have DNA, high resolution surveillance cameras everywhere, data tracking for every little purchase we make, cell phone cell site data and even GPS gizmos tracking us everywhere we go. We are unintentionally creating airtight alibis for our usual suspects we used to arrest and convict.
The robbery or rape victim turned eyewitness pointed out the suspect in some courtroom and the case used to be all over. Today suspect can quickly tell the cops that he was at the Burger King drive through, bought gas, a bottle of wine and some smokes at a 7-11 store many miles away at the exact time of the crime and prove it without difficulty.
DNA and fingerprints found at crime scenes are often meaningless because suspects are known to their victims and are often guests in their homes. More often than not DNA is clearing wrongly fingered suspects rather than implicating the guilty.
There is a sad truth and that is perhaps as many as half of the people we convicted may well have been innocent of the crime for which they were accused.
Risky behavior and relationships engaged by marginal, throwaway type people make them right to do the time for someone else’s crime. Equally sad is the guilty get away with their crimes and commit more.
Comments
So, of the 86% of the total crimes (murders), 50% of that fraction (what's that, about 75%?), could have been innocent and would naturally protest as much...so maybe the old expression cops have that _everybody_ claims to be innocent, well, it looks like a lot of 'em WERE. Or could have been.
Add to this (and correct me if I'm wrong, please), that the majority of our effort, and our best people, are put to work solving a crime as heinous as murder, now you gotta wonder, what the heck is the wrongful conviction rate on the more trivial stuff, where, I presume, our best and brightest _aren't_ on the case.
The statistics here, based on arrests, paint a much less dramatic picture, though it is possible that the decrease in arrests over time can be explained by the exoneration of "usual suspects."
If as your link suggests the decrease in clearances is somewhat less it none the less shows we have convicted many thousands of innocent people.
The larger cities like Chicago have have many more of the newer crimefighting tools that exonorate the innocent than rural areas of the country.
I suspect the clearance rate to shrink even more as time goes by.